Identification of high-risk CT findings for the development of pancreatic cancer using pancreatic volumetry

Objective: It is unclear what kind of CT findings of the pancreas are high-risk for developing pancreatic cancer (PC) in the future. We performed pancreatic volumetry in PC patients and identified high-risk CT findings.
Methods: Among 3769 patients who underwent abdominal contrast-enhanced CT between April 2009 and March 2017 and whose images were stored in DICOM format, 15 patients who underwent abdominal CT for other purposes 6 to 120 months before the diagnosis of PC were included. These 15 PC and 15 non-PC patients whose background factors were matched were retrospectively analyzed by pancreatic volumetry.
Results: There were significant differences between two groups in volume of main pancreatic duct (MPD) plus any cystic lesion (P=0.007), volume of MPD plus any cystic lesion/body surface area (BSA; P=0.009), MPD diameter (P=0.011) and MPD diameter/BSA (P=0.013). In univariate analysis, volume of MPD plus any cystic lesion/BSA ≥ 0.53 mL/m² (P=0.002), volume of pancreatic parenchyma/BSA < 27.0 mL/m² (P=0.030) and MPD diameter/BSA ≥ 1.0 mm/m² (P=0.006) were significant risk factors for PC.
Conclusions: Quantification of the volume of MPD plus any cystic lesion/BSA, volume of pancreatic parenchyma/BSA, and MPD diameter/BSA on pre-diagnosis CT were useful for predicting the future occurrence of PC.